Monday, Texas was witness to a weather curiosity. Laredo, which sits on the Rio Grande River in the southern portion of the state, recorded a temperature high of 108 degrees Fahrenheit (°F). In the city of Dalhart in the Texas Panhandle 750 miles to the north — on the same day — the low was 22°F.
Throughout the Midwest and the Great Plains, atypical cold and dry weather has set in over the last six weeks. On April 9, the Rapid City, S.D. airport recorded 20 inches of snowfall, breaking a 43-year-old single-day snowfall record for the region, with 28.2 inches of accumulation ultimately being recorded for the site. The next day, freezing rain poured down in northeast Texas through Oklahoma, resulting in a quarter-inch buildup of ice on the trees in Enid, Okla.
Grand Island, Neb. was hit by nickel-sized hail. On April 8, tornadoes touched the ground near Akron, Colo. Central Nebraska recorded a surface temperature of 18°F last week. Cheyenne, Wyo. experienced highs of 12°F with wind gusts reaching 42 miles per hour (mph).
For most of the nation’s core, the cold snap has yielded colder-than-average temperatures, and for all Midwest and Great Plains states — with the exception of Minnesota, which has experienced higher-than-average precipitation — an extended dry streak.
Saturn, Ukko, Virgil and Waldo
The onset of Winter Storm Waldo has postponed the start of spring for the center of the nation. According to Donald Keeney, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist for MDA Weather Services, the cold will remain for the next week to 10 days, with temperatures dropping by the end of the week. Additional snow storms are scheduled to start Wednesday, with much-needed precipitation hitting the Great Plains in the form of rain. The Great Plains will see above-average temperatures after this cold front snaps, with the Midwest seeing near-average temperatures.
This storm is the product of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is pulling colder winds from Canada farther south. Although this was expected by meteorologists, the duration of this cycle is longer than forecasts predicted. Weather patterns like these are typically accompanied by heat waves during the summer months.
Waldo is just the latest of a long line of winter storms that have marked the peak intensity of the NAO. Winter Storms Saturn, Ukko and Virgil have contributed to the situation that saw Florida and South Carolina hit with the fifth-coldest month in their history, Kentucky hit with a March temperature average of 38.9°F and five states actually reporting that March was colder, on average, than January.
This wasn’t the case everywhere, however. California recorded its ninth-warmest March on record and Arizona its tenth. New England was also warmer-than-usual, with this March falling into the warmest third of Marches experienced by Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire.
What does it all mean?
Americans will no doubt wonder what the significance of these abnormal weather patterns might be. Will they affect the growing cycle? The drought? Animal migrations?
The short answer is that they won’t have much of an effect on anything, according to Keeney.
The cold has caused mild winterkill in the wheat yields in the upper Great Plains, Keeney said, but with low precipitation for most of the area, the subsurface soil moisture levels are stable. With the exception of Minnesota, there is little risk of sustained flooding — 29 states have reported a drier-than-typical March — and if end-of-the-month temperatures are at predicted levels, farmers should be able to plant in time for the growing season. There has been no winterkill besides the effect on already-harvestable grasses, which is not expected to affect later crops.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Prospective Planting Report is currently predicting on-time planting and a slightly larger-than-average corn and wheat yield this year, with soybean and cotton yields down slightly. Nebraska and Minnesota are expected to take the greatest hits in production yields this year.
Late plantings, however, may be endangered, as the growing season will be truncated this year. Late-season yields for produce may be below averagesl.
The drought may be mitigated, Keeney said, but these storms will not resolve it entirely. Forecasts still predict excessive soil dryness in the nation’s core and southwestern quadrant. The additional snow is expected to improve livestock conditions, as it will promote the growth of wild grasses.
Despite the precipitation, the Midwest and Great Plains are still in drought conditions, with near-normal soil moisture conditions seen in most of Missouri and all of Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Minnesota and northwestern Iowa are 4 to 6 inches of precipitation below averages, while Kansas down by a margin of 2 to 4 inches. There is a danger of snow melt-off flooding low-lying areas, but the melt is expected to be absorbed into the soil layer quickly.
Western Michigan is on flood watch, as meteorologists predict 3 to 5 inches of heavy rainfall. “From the big water picture, it’s good for the Great Lakes,” said Mark Walton, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids. “Part of the reason we could handle this last event so well is because we were so low [on precipitation] and we had a buffer, but that’s not going to be the case for the next event, so that’s what we’re worried about.”
This current weather pattern shows an extreme difference from 2012. Last year, March saw record warmth.
The cold snap is not all bad news, however. Maple syrup producers typically rely on freezing nighttime temperatures and above-freezing daytime temperatures to force sap circulation. The atypical temperatures have extended the six-week sap-tapping season, which promises to be a boom from a lackluster, excessively warm 2012 season.