Dale Gavlak
Jordan is being drawn further into the Syrian crisis with Washington’s recent announcement that it will send 200 army planners to the kingdom to defend its border with Syria. Described as a command and control force, it could serve as the vanguard for a possible deployment of 20,000 U.S. troops should President Obama decide to intervene to secure Syria’s chemical weapons arsenals or to prevent the civil war, which is nearing its third year, from spilling over the borders.
Unlike Saudi Arabia, this staunch Mideast ally has no U.S. bases on its territory and has never allowed in a sizable American military presence. Even in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, U.S. special forces units present in Jordan were kept secret. Recently, the country’s Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour denied that U.S., British and French experts were in the country after the advisers already had spent months training Jordanian armed forces to protect against chemical attack and to instruct moderate Syrian rebels in combat.
It is thought that the American troops will operate inside the kingdom’s military compounds, but there is still concern by some that a widening presence could spark domestic unrest or open up Syria’s smaller southern neighbor to retribution by the Assad regime.
The announcement came a few days before a visit by the new U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel this week to Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to discuss Syria, Iran and reviving Mideast peace talks.
Jordanian political analyst Labib Kamhawi believes the visit is meant to “finalize a master plan for a military intervention in Syria.”
But despite the public confirmation of the troop deployment, Jordan maintains that its position on Syria has not changed from seeking a political solution rather than a military one.
“We are still against any military intervention in Syria and urge a political solution to end the bloodshed in Syria,” Information Minister Mohammad al-Momani said last Wednesday.
Al-Momani said the U.S. contingent would assist with a heavy influx of Syrian refugees and tensions along the border as Syrian rebels try to wrest control in the south of the war-torn country. “They will be here to bolster our training and defense capabilities in light of the deterioration in Syria,” he added.
Jordan hosts about half a million Syrian refugees and the number grows daily by 1,500 to 3,000. Authorities say the figure could double or triple by the end of the year.
But Kamhawi believes we are entering a “new phase” in the Syria crisis. He said the threat of chemical weapons is “being used once again as a pretext to do something,” as was the case in the lead-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. He said the concern of Syria’s chemical weapons falling into the hands of al-Qaida could be a rallying point for action.
“There is a decision to reveal that Jordan is involved in stage two and that its territory would be open to forces coming from various areas to cross the borders into Syria,” he said. “This is probably what prompted [Syrian President Bashar] Assad to go live on TV.”
That same day, Assad alleged in an interview with Syrian journalists that Jordan had allowed thousands of fighters and arms to flow over the border to the rebels, and warned the conflict could spread there.
“We hope that Jordanian officials … will be more aware because the fire will not stop at our border and everyone knows that Jordan is as exposed as Syria,” Assad said. The embattled president also asserted that Syria had sent a pair of envoys to Jordan over the past two months to warn officials about the dangers of allowing foreign fighters to join the conflict. Jordanian officials denied the reports, he said, adding that their statements were “not convincing.”
Kamhawi believes “force could be mutual, including acts of violence and sabotage,” in this new phase.
“I’m sure there are some sleeping cells in Jordan that are part of the Syrian intelligence,” he said. “We might witness some acts of violence or sabotage inside the capital, Amman, or other places as a response or retaliation to the public involvement that Jordan has opened its borders and land to foreign forces to cross into Syria.”
Another Jordanian analyst, Oraib Rentawi, downplayed the imminent deployment of U.S. forces, saying it was part of a “long process of cooperation with Jordan.”
“I don’t want to exaggerate the meaning of this step,” he said. “I don’t see this as a serious turning point in the Syrian crisis. I prefer to see it within the context of cooperation between the two countries to confront any possible undesired future scenarios.”
Rentawi also thinks that Assad is too busy using his military to confront an escalating campaign against rebel fighters at home to engage in retaliation against Jordan at this time.
“He has enough troubles inside Syria to deal with than to open a new front outside the country. I don’t think we will witness a serious military threat from the Syrian borders, but I cannot exclude some security incidents,” Rentawi said.
Julien Barnes-Dacey of the European Council on Foreign Relations sees the troop deployment as a measure of how concerned the Jordanians are about “security threats heading their way from Syria,” whether from Assad or from rebel militants seeking to unseat him.
“There’s concern in Amman about potential retaliatory action from Assad due to their support for the armed rebels, but also growing fears about a post-Assad, lawless Syria acting as a launch pad for jihadist attacks on the Kingdom,” Barnes-Dacey said.
“The potential mix of radical Islamists and loose chemical weapons is terrifying for Jordan. The presence of American troops may offer them some sense of security,” he added.
Rentawi said Jordan does not want to see southern Syria along its northern border turned into a safe haven for al-Qaida or jihadists who could turn their weapons eventually on the moderate kingdom. The resource-poor country also increasingly feels the burden on its water, energy, health and education sectors as more and more refugees flood in.
Rioting in the country’s main Zaatari refugee camp has become commonplace. Last Friday, clashes broke out after 100 Syrian refugees threw stones at Jordanian police when some of the refugees tried to sneak out of the harsh desert facility. Ten security personnel were injured, one seriously.
Jordanians from the nearby town of Mafraq angrily protested afterward, demanding the government send the Syrians back home. It’s the latest in a series of growing tensions as refugee numbers climb.
A recent poll conducted by the University of Jordan’s Center for Strategic Studies revealed that more than 70 percent of Jordanians believe the government should stop the flow of Syrian refugees to the kingdom. Jordan said it will still receive the refugees “with open arms,” but in reality its aid coffers and those of the U.N. refugee agency are running on empty.
On Sunday, Jordan moved to file a petition at the U.N. Security Council highlighting the “burdens and difficult humanitarian conditions” it faces because of the refugee influx. Officials estimate the cash-strapped country will spend $1.5 billion to host the refugees this year.
“These are reasons to get more worried and maybe more involved in this crisis,” Rentawi said. Demonstrations could break out “if the deployment of the U.S. troops will change into intervention in the Syrian crisis,” he warned.